According to the latest Istat (Italian Statistics Institute) data, in 2024 the Italian economy recorded a GDP growth of +0.7% (in line with that of 2023), thanks to both domestic demand net of inventories (+0.5%) and foreign demand (+0.4%); the change in inventories was slightly negative (-0.2%). Istat adds that “on the supply side of goods and services, added value grew in agriculture (+2.0%), services (+0.6%) and, to a lesser extent, industry (+0.2%).
The growth in production was accompanied by an expansion in labour input and income. The ratio of public administration debt to GDP improved significantly compared to 2023, standing at -3.4%. The primary balance improved from -3.6% to +0.4%. The tax burden increased by more than one percentage point. Interest expenditure increased by 9.5%.
The forecasts for the two-year period 2025-2026, formulated by the National Institute of Statistics in June 2025, are for Italian GDP growth in both years, respectively +0.6 and +0.8 per cent: the increase “would be entirely supported by domestic demand net of inventories (+0.8 and +0.9 percentage points respectively), while net foreign demand would make a negative contribution in both years (-0.2 and -0.1 p.p.). The forecast scenario for net foreign demand assumes that the climate of uncertainty surrounding US trade policy will ease in the second half of 2025. However, tariffs are expected to have a negative impact on world trade and international growth prospects”.
GENERAL TREND IN CONSTRUCTION
Investments in construction, as stated by ANCE (National Association of Building Contractors), “have been the main driver of growth for the Italian economy in the threeyear period 2021-2023”. This performance “is supported by two important drivers of development: tax incentives for the redevelopment of real estate assets and the PNRR (National Recovery and Resilience Plan), which is expected to be completed in 2026”.
For 2024, ANCE has estimated investments in construction in Italy to be worth €223.5bn, with a contraction of 5.3% that “reflects opposing dynamics in the residential and non-residential sectors” : in fact, this figure,“which confirms, albeit with a slight improvement, the negative forecast released a year ago, is affected by the significant decline in extraordinary housing maintenance. On the other hand, as mentioned, it highlights the continued excellent performance of public works, driven by the implementation of PNRR project.”
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