For some years now all the talk in terms of expansion in MDF, and to some extent particleboard, production has centred on China.
Then, in 2005, the Chinese market went relatively quiet for the European complete-line machinery suppliers and most thought it was likely to stay that way for a while. However, in 2006, Chinese panel makers again became active, with five or six new continuous mills being built. Orders for 2007 are coming in and it is generally expected that a similar number of mills to 2006 will be ordered this year and next. These are chiefly MDF/HDF rather than particleboard, which is also against the trend expected two years ago; it seems particleboard is not as readily accepted in China and its stubbornly low price is also a problem.
Meanwhile, the trend within that fibreboard capacity growth is towards thin board - often HDF for laminate flooring substrate. People frequently ask: "Where is the 'next China' going to come from?" The answer, it seems to me, is that there probably won't be 'another China' in terms of large numbers of mills being built in one country, or even one region. As Part 1 of our MDF survey in this issue shows, development is now more widespread. Areas of Europe are experiencing quite strong growth in capacity. Western Europe has been relatively quiet in terms of new-build, while Turkey added 420,000m3 with a new-build and an extension and will add more in 2007. So will Hungary and Poland, while in 2008, and beyond, Poland, Russia and Turkey (again) feature. Meanwhile, in South America there is a lot of activity, with the world's biggest continuous press to be built at Duratex in Brazil, a small new MDF mill in Chile and four MDF production lines being supplied to Mexico and Brazil by SWPM of China (News, p10). As Richard Higgs points out (see p20), Brazilian companies Satipel and Berneck also plan continuous MDF lines for 2008 production and Fibraplac, Arauco and Masisa all have plans for Brazil. The next issue of WBPI will cover this region in MDF Part ll. So you could say that 'the next China' is already here - in parts of Europe and in South America for instance - and I suspect that kind of more scattered expansion of the world MDF industry will be the pattern for the future, with no one country or region dominating as China has in the recent past. The controlling factor going forward must be the wood resource and that is an increasing problem worldwide, either due to paucity of supply, or because of fierce competition between paper producers, energy generators, biofuel synthesisers and the most sustainable users of all - wood products manufacturers.