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Sections » PANEL INDUSTRY SURVEYS » PARTICLEBOARD
  • Volume up, sales down
    In his final analysis for this year of the composite panel industry’s capacities in 2008, John Wadsworth lists the particleboard mills outside Europe and North America and looks at the market, past, present and future
    Published:  17 December, 2009

    2008 will long be remembered as the year when the global economic downturn, occasioned by the collapse of the US and European housing markets, encountered the global financial crisis. In many ways the two events were linked through the sale of toxic assets comprising dubious housing loans among the world’s banking community.
    More than one year on and much of the world has experienced recession. It is fair to say that crisis and near-crisis conditions remain with us.
    Inevitably, in the market conditions prevailing, the particleboard industry has suffered greatly. However, a little like the geographical impact of the economic crises, the performance of the particleboard industry has also varied by region and by country.
    Part II of the 2009 survey of 2008 capacities, which covers the ‘Rest of the World’ outside North America and Europe, shows that aggregate world capacity grew by just 1.3% or 1.20 million m3 in 2008. North American/EU15 particleboard capacity declined by 2.3%. Their share of world capacity fell to just 46.9%, against 52.7% as recently as 2005. This is because capacity in ‘other Europe’, which includes Turkey and Russia, expanded by about one million m3 (+5.2%) and the ‘Rest of the World’ grew by 1.2 million m3 (+4.4%) to the end of 2008.
    Capacity in the ‘Rest of the World’ at the end of 2008 stood at 28,507,000m3, compared with 27,290,000m3 at the end of 2007. However, even in these slightly more buoyant economies, we cannot even pretend that capacity represents production. There is evidence to show that capacity utilisation in Africa and South America in particular is running at uneconomic levels for many operators.
    The listings of mills show fewer changes than has been typical in past surveys, with the major changes being the incorporation of the new mills opening during the year (reported one year ago in WBPI Issue 6, 2008/9) and one previously existing, but unrecorded, mill in a new country for the survey, namely Zambia. An Ethiopian mill is also shown for the first time but again this mill was reported in the 2008 survey as a new project.
    The editor of WBPI and the author continue to extend their thanks and appreciation to all the respondents who took time to complete the enquiry form or to send their comments separately about new projects, closures and changes of ownership during the past year.
    We recognise that even after several years our lists are not complete and nor do they always contain the most accurate information for some mills.
    The timing of new lines, or plant modifications, which add to capacity can be difficult to confirm against originally announced schedules. This has become an increasing problem during the recent period. The problem of existing but previously unrecorded mills has a relatively small impact globally but can be significant on a regional basis. Adding them to the lists in any given year will show an apparent growth in capacity unless modifications are made historically. The ones shown in the 2009 survey have not been incorporated into historical data because their sizes are not very large.
    There remains the ongoing problem in China with the large number of at least 200 small ‘village’ mills with local equipment. It may be possible to make an estimate of their true number and aggregate capacity for any given year but subsequent tracking of change is not practicable. The listings continue to show those existing and new lines incorporating foreign equipment.
    The net effect of the changes is to show a position very similar to that reported 12 months ago, with 710 mills operating 795 lines globally. The forecast for 2010 suggests there will be 724 mills with 809 lines. This is a little down on the previous survey but there are some lines previously forecast which have been postponed or abandoned.

    China
    There have been no significant additions reported for China since the two larger continuous presses installed during 2007. Indeed there is little new activity reported thus far for 2009/2010. The Chinese particleboard sector is not as dynamic as the MDF sector – or even the plywood sector. Some of the newer mills have reported their intention to substitute the lower quality output of the many small units by offering superior quality and a wider product range.

    North East Asia
    2008 saw the biggest capacity changes for many years in this region when Japan Novopan and Okura brought on-stream their new lines for a combined total capacity of 545,000m3 per annum. Their motivation is to achieve cost efficiencies with what are the two largest lines in Japan. Both companies operate existing lines and it remains to be seen if they will close one or two of their ageing lines.

    South East Asia
    There are two main changes to last year’s survey forecasts. Firstly, Green River Panels opened its first particleboard line in Thailand at Hat Yai. Secondly, our report of the SPF mill in Palembang was premature and its capacity has been deducted from the South East Asian total (but it will appear again in the future!).

    Other Asia
    Despite the diversity within the region, there was no activity reported. There were a number of small changes made to the listings for existing mills, based on new information received.

    South America
    As reported in the 2008 survey, new announcements and significant changes planning. For more information readers can refer to Richard Higgs’ Focus on Latin America in the October/November 2009 issue of WBPI (No 5).
    The two recent developments were the Duratex/Satipel merger and the acquisition of Tafisa Brazil by Cellulosa Arauco through its subsidiary Placas do Parana. Some 1,895,000m3 of existing particleboard capacity is involved in these transactions, as well as up to two million cubic metres in future plans.

    Australasia
    Capacity changes in this region remained very quiet during 2008. The region has been affected directly by global conditions and its export markets remain very sluggish.

    Africa
    Through the two new lines in South Africa recorded in the 2008 mill listings, Africa is seen to record one of the largest percentage gains in particleboard capacity of any region. The net effect is, however, affected by the closure of older lines by P G Bison in 2008 and will also be affected by Sonae’s reported intention to close a small line in 2009.

    There is apparent growth in Africa because of the addition of the new mill in Ethiopia and the pre-existing mill in Zambia.
    Average line capacity Tables 2 and 3 show the average line capacities in the ‘Rest of the World’ and North America/Europe. Some of the new lines have had the effect of raising average capacity in North East Asia and South East Asia. There is very little change noted for the other regions. Even so, average capacities in the rest of the world are considerably below those in North America and Europe. Indeed, EU15 average capacity increased a little during the year.
    The total of lines between 100-199,000m3 per annum has fallen during 2008 because there was one closure and one correction to the listings.
    Similarly for the 200,000m3 per annum lines, there was one correction to the listing which was in fact moved to the largest category. It is here where growth is most apparent. This total includes lines under construction but not yet operational. There is a 50% growth in numbers, which under-represents the actual capacity change because several of these lines are 500,000m3 per annum or larger.
    Operators are concluding that if the finance and raw material are available, then build as large as is feasible. This is particularly true in those countries where there are old, small, mills operating over which the new mills can gain an economic advantage. The industry in most regions – including Europe, Other Europe and North America – are suggesting that extra-large mills will be the future model and closures of the older mills will follow.
    Globally, there are eight lines coming on stream in 2009 or 2010 with capacities of 450,000m3 up to 750,000m3. Three of these are in the ‘Rest of the World’ and the remainder are in eastern Europe, Turkey and Russia. Their combined capacities amount to over 4.4 million m3.
    There are 36 mills worldwide with capacities greater than 500,000m3 per annum. Five are in ‘Rest of the World’, two in North America and 29 in Europe/eastern Europe. Building big mills has, it appears, become the norm.

    Future Capacity Changes
    The ‘Rest of the World’ enjoyed capacity growth of 4.6% in 2008 and this will be at least maintained in 2009. Two large mills in Brazil, for Masisa and Fibraplac, aided by the SPF mill in Indonesia, will see 1.37 million m3 added to capacity during 2009 (+ 4.8%). It has been assumed that Sonae will close a line in South Africa. Although the volume gain in 2009 is similar to 2008, the number of projects is much reduced.
    We still have no further details of the PT Novopan (Indonesia) mill bought by Segamat.

    Beyond 2009 there are only two projects reported. They are both by Masisa: the ongoing expansion of its Montenegro mill; and a new mill in Chile. Therefore, capacity growth in 2010 and 2011 is virtually negligible, but aggregate capacity for the ‘Rest of the World’ may slip over 30 million m3 a year by 2011.
    This event was expected sooner but the Duratex one million cubic metre per annum project has been shelved.
    Berneck has also postponed or shelved its plans for a very large line in Santa Caterina, Brazil.
    Following the Cellulosa Arauco purchase of Tafisa in Brazil, some of the small lines in Curitiba may be closed.
    There has been no news of further developments in China. It is possible that, as China’s furniture industry places more emphasis on the domestic market, it may lead to a bigger demand for particleboard.
    It is hard to believe that all the regions except South America will remain static during this time. Nevertheless, it is equally difficult to discern just at what point in the future companies will consider new mills and lines. The growth attained in 2008 and 2009 was the result of decisions made prior to the initial economic downturn in 2007 and the subsequent crisis in 2008. It will be a brave decision to commission new lines now which might come on stream at the end of 2010 or early in 2011.
    As seen in South America, companies may use their capital and credit lines to embark upon mergers and acquisitions rather than create new greenfield capacity. This was a process European firms went through 20 years ago and Australasian and US firms within the past 5 to 10 years. Apart from South America there are signs of corporate activity in South East Asia, eastern Europe, Turkey and even in China.
    One result of the economic conditions may be to give rise to an accelerated strategy of corporate consolidation. If the industry growth follows the trend in capacity growth then companies may find this unacceptable as a return on direct investment in new production. Mergers and takeovers, followed by rationalisation and modernisation, could well prove more attractive in the medium term.

  • Unprecedented times
    John Wadsworth presents part 1 of our annual survey of the particleboard industry in Europe and North America as at the end of 2008. He looks at the changes in capacity and markets and at the future prospects
    Published:  26 November, 2009

    It is our fervent wish that this year’s survey and report of particleboard capacity changes in Europe and North America will not be repeated for its illustration of the dire conditions of the current state of the industry. Since the 2006 survey, the declining fortunes of the industry have been reported with sadness and trepidation. The author and WBPI editor have felt like gloom-laden messengers from ancient Greek mythology.
    While there is no natural law of continuing industrial growth, it had been hoped that the western European and North American particleboard industries could at least enjoy modest growth linked to the socio-economic fundamentals. These hopes have been dashed in the past two years and 2009/10 show little sign of recovery. That is not to deny the rest of Europe, and indeed other parts of the world, their own development.
    The author’s personal observation of much of the commentary and reporting of the panel industry seems to be rather impersonal and somewhat unemotional. The riposte may be to use ‘objectiveness’ as a justification and that may be a worthy approach. However, the author has been analysing the particleboard industry around the world since the early 1970s and these are unprecedented times. Perhaps it is time for Europe and North America to hand on the mantel of market leaders to other regions. Perhaps it is an economic inevitability. Nevertheless, it is a structural change that deserves a little emotion.
    At a time when ‘wood is good’ is the message being received, the particleboard industry – and the panel industry in general – has seldom faced such a range of hoops and hurdles to be negotiated just to stay in business.
    The 2009 survey of particleboard capacity in 2008 shows that aggregate European and North American capacity declined by 0.2% during the year.
    Europe declined by 0.7% and North America, principally the US, declined by 3.5%. This is despite the known expansions in certain sub-regions. These changes are measured among the mills still operating at the end of 2008. Some mills are closed, it is believed, indefinitely. Other mills are taking extensive closures and short-time working. For the sake of comparison their capacities are included at their full annual rating.
    The data collected is by no means perfect and we remain aware of the possibility of under-recording a number of current mill’s capacities. This would have been true for 2007, but by leaving the data unchanged for 2008, a like-for-like comparison is possible.

  • ‘Rest of the world’ thinks big about particleboard
    In his analysis of the industry outside Europe and North America, our expert John Wadsworth finds a rapidly growing volume of panels – in contrast to Part 1 of our survey where things were found to be moving slowly
    Published:  09 December, 2008

    If there were any lingering doubts about the division of the panel world into two principal regions, the results of the 2008 survey must dispel them. The original EU15 countries and North America have settled into the slow lane while the ‘Rest of the world’ is accelerating in the fast lane.
    Total world capacity exceeded 90 million m3 during 2007, as predicted in last year’s survey; however, the EU15/North America region saw an actual reduction whereas the rest of the world, including Eastern Europe, grew by over 1.7 million m3 or 6.8%. The EU15/North America share of world capacity was 52.7% in 2005, yet only 48.6% in 2007.
    By 2010 the estimate is that it will be below 45%. This is the result of the ‘Rest of the world’ becoming active in new mill building and EU15/North America not adding to capacity at all; 2009 capacity is estimated to be lower than 2005.
    Capacity in the ‘Rest of the world’ at the end of 2007 was 27,352,000m3.
    Readers will note there are more additions to the mill listings than just the new projects for 2007 reported last year. There are a number of hitherto unrecorded mills, as well as adjustments to 2007/2008 capacities offered by operators on the Intermark/WBPI enquiry forms.
    Once again, the editor of WBPI, and the author, extend their sincere gratitude to all those respondents who took time to complete the enquiry form or send comments about new projects, closures or changes of ownership. In turn we apologise to any operators who believe they have been misrepresented (slightly) in the mill listings. There is a tendency in the industry to regard actual production as a mill’s capacity in any given year. This is particularly true when output is increasing and reference to ‘nameplate’ capacity is obviously erroneous. One effect of this on the survey results is to show a higher capacity utilisation – when compared with nameplate.
    One further problem for the author is the handling of existing, but previously unrecorded, mills. To report them in the current year will give rise automatically to an apparent growth in capacity volumes and mill numbers. 2007 was such a year, as we were able to incorporate a number of mills with Compak equipment which were in operation before 2007. In the past there were attempts to modify the previous year’s data to avoid indicating unnatural growth in capacity volume and numbers of mills. This has not been undertaken in this year’s survey.
    Accordingly, Table 1 shows the number of lines and capacity incorporating unrecorded mills and new mills.
    The net effect of including these unrecorded mills (and adjustments to capacity made by existing operators) was to add only 132,000m3 to 2007 capacity. New start-ups on the other hand accounted for 1,630,000m3 and seven new mills.
    Combining the results from Part I (WBPI October/November Issue 5), it can be shown there were at least 709 mills operating 795 production lines worldwide at the end of 2007. By the end of 2010 there will be 725 mills operating 811 lines – not really such a major increase in a global context and over three years. Given the current economic conditions, the industry may consider these additions more than adequate.
    Table 1 also shows little change in the relative importance of the main sub-regions and countries although Africa has moved above ‘other Asia’ with the two new mills in South Africa.

    China
    Although only two new mills are shown for 2007, China retains its position as possessing the most capacity among the regions. Even so, it is one of the few major panel producing countries where MDF capacity exceeds particleboard. The two new mills, Yingang and Tangshan Fortunelin, installed relatively large mills (by Chinese standards) with continuous presses. There was also corporate activity, with the new owners of PTP acquiring Asia Dekor (the original mill name is retained in the listings). Keen readers will also note the new listing of four Compak mills which existed in prior years but were unrecorded.

    North East Asia
    There was little significant activity during 2007 although there were some small changes to existing lines in Korea. Dongwha remains the major operator in Korea – and possibly the region – as well as a significant MDF operator in South East Asia. The new Japanese mills are not due on stream until 2008.

    South East Asia
    The major events during the year were the opening of two new lines in Indonesia – PT Kutai Timber and Sumatera Prima Fibreboard. Otherwise the changes shown are the inclusion of previously unrecorded Compak lines in the Philippines, Vietnam and Indonesia. Like all Compak lines, capacities are small and they utilise, principally, non-wood raw materials.

    Other Asia
    One new start-up is recorded – Bajaj Hindustan in Pakistan – but there are also additional Compak lines in Sri Lanka and India. There is little follow-up information as to the success of the new start-ups in Iran.

    South America
    2007 was strangely quiet regarding new start-ups, other than Novopan in Ecuador. After the surge of a few years ago, the interest in particleboard appeared to wane because of the MDF projects of the main players and a softening in the market. The US housing downturn from quarter three of 2006 may also have affected decision making. However, 2007/2008 will be notable for the significant new project announcements which will be described later but were alluded to in last year’s survey.
    Australasia
    In several ways this region mirrors events in Europe and North America. There are a number of corporate activities, but
    production capacity remains unchanged for the most part.

    Africa
    The new lines for PG Bison and Sonae have been shown for 2007 even though commercial production for one may not have commenced until early this year. The expansion in capacity provides uplift for the whole continent.

    Average line capacity
    Tables 2 and 3 show the average line capacities in North America/Europe contrasted with the ‘Rest of the world’. Despite several new larger-scale mills being installed, there has not been a distinct impact on average mill sizes, except in Africa, where the number of mills is relatively small. Canada and Other Europe saw measurable increases in average line capacity with most new lines being large scale (plus 59,000m3 and 18,000m3 per annum respectively). The incidence of ‘capacity creep’ appears to have changed somewhat from a year ago, when it was not in evidence in the ‘Rest of the world’. Returns from North East Asia, South East Asia and South America suggest modifications to achieve 3-4% increases.
    Table 4 shows the increase in the number of mills with capacities of 100,000m3 per annum and above. All the seven new installations were of at least 100,000m3 per annum, with four of them either of 200,000 or 300,000m3 per annum.
    Equally revealing is the number of lines over 500,000m3 per annum being projected. From 2008 there are nine new mills with over 500,000m3 per annum capacity: three in South America, one in western Europe, three in Turkey and two in Russia. The aggregate of these lines is 5.6 million m3, which is an average of well over 600,000m3 per annum! Once again, given the economic conditions, it can be speculated as to whether any of the projects will be postponed.

    Future capacity changes
    For 2007, the ‘Rest of the world’ saw a slightly inflated rate of capacity-building over 2006, at 6.8%. Overall, 2008 and 2009 will be rather more muted, at about 2.2% per annum. 2010 will see a return to at least 6% growth. As shown in table 5, the number of new projects (as reported rather than rumoured) is relatively meagre, at nine. The Green River project in Thailand was delayed until early 2008. Both Japanese mills are due, as is a small project in a new country, Ethiopia.
    Segamat of Malaysia has acquired PT Novopan, previously reported closed. It is reported Segamat will refurbish and restart the mill in 2008. (No capacity data is available).
    The gains made by South Africa will be ameliorated by the closure of two older lines by PG Bison amounting to 213,000m3 a year. Last year it was reported that Eucatex, Brazil, announced the largest project in the ‘Rest of the world’. Soon afterwards, two larger projects were announced, by Masisa and Duratex, both in Brazil, of 750,000m3 and 1,000,000m3 per annum, respectively. If achieved, this would propel Brazil’s national capacity to 5,249,000m3 per annum – fifth largest in the world at today’s levels.
    However, as we went to press, Duratex announced it was delaying its project due to the global financial crisis.
    These announcements would have lifted South America above South East Asia to account for 7.5% of world capacity.
    It would appear that, after 2008, particleboard capacity in Africa, Other Asia and Australasia will become stable. The reality may be quite different, especially in ‘Other Asia’, where India especially may see further projects.
    Table 6 summarises the changing world aggregate capacity as well as each principal region/country. There has to be doubt regarding the projection of 100 million m3 capacity by 2009. Even so, growth after 2007 to 2010 will be about 7.8%, or just over seven million m3.
    Very specially, Russia, Turkey and Brazil will lead this growth and account for 83% of that predicted so far between 2007 and 2010.
    What is revealing is that of the twelve sub-regions/countries, at the time of writing, nine would seem to possess static particleboard capacity from either 2007 or 2008 for at least two further years. ‘Other Europe’ and South America will be the most dynamic. These regions seem to have the best access to raw material (with the obvious exception of Turkey).

    Understanding this Survey
    It remains our philosophy to publish the information in our possession as it becomes available rather than wait in the hope of a really comprehensive listing.
    Therefore, various gaps exist – though fewer than last year – for which we thank contributors from the industry, equipment suppliers, associations and consultants.
    Mill capacity is, where possible, reported according to the operators’ own estimates. Where we have no estimate, there could be a reference list with a daily capacity. This has been grossed up by 330 days to provide annual capacity in thousands of cubic metres (m3) per annum. Where information is available for each line, this has been given. In some cases, we have provided details of more than one line per mill but published only total capacity.
    The country total capacity is based on the sum of the capacities we have provided. Where there are too many gaps, however, the country total according to other sources has been used.
    Capacity changes have been taken either directly from the survey results according to the mills’ own forecasts, or from published announcements of new lines which were available to WBPI.
    Once again, we doubt if the future capacity changes are entirely reliable because, firstly, full information regarding modifications to existing lines is not available and, secondly, we might have missed some of the new announcements or closures. We hope to correct the listings with each subsequent survey.

  • All quiet on the western front
    Not surprisingly, this year’s survey of the particleboard industry in Europe and North America shows an industry struggling with the current economic conditions afflicting both regions. John Wadsworth presents the survey and analyses the results – and the likely prospects for the industry as far as possible against a backdrop of economic uncertainty
    Published:  06 October, 2008

    Regarding particleboard capacity in North America and western Europe, never has our headline phrase been more appropriate. The 2008 WBPI survey of particleboard capacity reveals that for North America and the EU15 countries, capacity in 2007 increased by just 0.4%. Overall capacity in the entire region including eastern Europe and Russia increased by 4.6% or 2,769,000m3 – entirely located in eastern Europe.
    The macro-economic parameters
    governing North America and the EU15 were not at all conducive to expansion activities in particleboard and, in fact, contributed to a virtual paralysis of
    the industry.
    The analogy of the Western Front in Europe in World War One is quite apposite; the industry has almost reached the stage of ‘trench warfare’.
    There are small forays forwards, matched by various retreats, but the strategic picture is stagnation. However, for the protagonists – those in the trenches – it has been (and will be for a year or so) a hard slog to ‘keep their feet out of the mud’ and to avoid ‘sticking their heads over the parapet’!
    As tables 1 and 3 show, the actual number of protagonists is declining as well. This has had a marked effect in Canada where, as shown in table 2, average line size has jumped to the highest level of all regions involved. This is the result of the combined effect of four line closures and the new large installation at Sonae Tafisa’s Lac Megantic mill.

    North America
    There have been no reported changes during 2007 for the US and Mexico. Indeed, there is no reported ‘capacity creep’ either. The US saw a one-third drop in housing starts compared with 2006 (and as recently as July 2008, housing starts were at a 17-year low).
    With major uncertainties as to future fixed and variable costs of particleboard production, the industry has no low-risk options, other than to stay in the trenches for the time being.

    EU15
    There was a 0.5% increase in capacity recorded in this region for 2007. Within EU economic growth, this represents a retrenchment – hardly surprising given the poor economic performance of several of the major economies during the year, which has continued during 2008 and is likely to worsen into 2009.
    2007 (and 2008) has seen particleboard prices at variable cost levels as demand slackened swiftly in some of the leading consuming countries. Without offering a diatribe on housing recession, credit crunch, slowing exports and an increasing share of imports, suffice to say these factors have not helped.
    During 2007 in the EU15 there was more talk of mill closures than there was of new projects. The UK accounted for virtually all of the capacity growth that there was in the EU15.

    Other Europe
    Capacity in the rest of Europe (‘other Europe’) grew by 16.7% during the year with new mills coming on stream in Russia, Romania, Lithuania and Slovakia.
    The latter was the most notable for being the first major project in this region
    incorporating the Shanghai Wood Based Panel Machinery Company’s (SWPM) continuous press. This, naturally, was at
    a Kronospan site, since Kronospan
    owns SWPM.
    There was little change in Turkey – other than a slight downward revision in capacity, principally because of statistical adjustments. About 1.25 million m3 of new particleboard capacity was opened in Russia, which consequently became the fourth largest producer in the world behind China, Germany and the US.

    Future Capacity Changes
    The combined capacity of North America and the EU15 will decline during 2008 by 2.2%, or nearly one million m3, as shown in tables 5 and 6.
    Table 5 is unusual in that it shows, for the first time, no effective increases in capacity for two consecutive years in North America. The industry seems to have no new projects for particleboard in the pipeline and neither does it report very much in the way of capacity creep.
    Adjustments to existing lines could have a small impact on unit fixed costs but variable costs are the real problem.
    Extra production could impact gross sales values but where is the demand? There seems to be a tendency (noted in previous years) for operators to attempt to increase panel unit value. This takes the form of surface finishing, cutting-to-size and low-emission boards, for example. There are rewards, pitfalls and challenges in this strategy as well.
    However, medium to long-term, if managed adroitly, it affords a more secure option – if such a word can be used at this time!
    At the end of 2007, Flakeboard in North America announced suspension of production at one line in Albany. The line is not dismantled and is still shown as existing in 2007 and 2008. With little or no prospect for a market reversal in 2009, this line may yet close permanently, which would mean a loss in capacity of 180,000m3 per annum.
    Among the EU15 mills there is only one major new line – at Egger, Rambervillers in France, but three smaller lines will close, resulting in a neutral impact on French total capacity.
    Closures will also occur at Genk, Belgium and Cella in Spain.
    However, on a more positive note, Kronospan’s mill at Bischweier in Germany will add a net gain of 206,000m3 per annum, while the Saviola mill at Viadana in Italy will also make a net gain, with press changes, of about 100,000m3 per annum (see WBPI Aug/Sept 2008, p46).
    Overall, though, EU15 capacity will decline by about 200,000m3 per annum.
    More worrying is that there are no reported gains for 2009. Why will this come about? It is sufficient to cite Spain as an example.
    In 2006, Spain saw a record of 920,000 dwelling starts being made. During 2007/08, such starts will fall to 300-500,000 units. This volume drop is greater than the total number of housing starts in several EU15 countries such as the UK, France or Germany.
    It might be early to make such a prediction but it is not likely that EU15 will ever regain its share of regional, or even world, capacity. EU15 capacity in fact looks set to remain sluggish for at least five, and maybe even 10, years.
    Table 7 shows the upward march of the other European country capacities – Turkey and Russia in particular. The size of the new Turkish mills is surprising, given the acute raw material situation in that country.
    Table 8 illustrates clearly the future role of ‘Other Europe’ in the Western World’s particleboard industry. Time will tell if Russian and Turkish advances are too bold.

    How the Listing was Compiled
    The WBPI listings for 2007 (2006 figures) were reviewed and modifications made using other published sources and data received directly from the mills. Published information was reviewed for news of capacity changes. These sources included relevant trade magazines, association reports and equipment suppliers’
    reference lists.
    Self-completion enquiry forms were
    distributed to the mills, requesting current and future capacity data. These forms contained the information the mills provided the previous year. Other questions were asked about non-standard production, future production rates, price movements and cost changes. The form was also posted on a special website. Responses amounted to 61% of the North American industry and 31% of existing European capacity.
    The mills’ own reported capacities are used wherever possible because this is the basis upon which they make their estimates of future capacity and production changes. Where this information is not available, published sources are used, usually on the basis of 330 operating days per year.
    Conversion of ft² to m3/year is made with 1,000 ft² equal to 1.77m3.

  • New lines go to new places
    Published:  13 November, 2007
    This survey, covering North America and Europe to end-2006, contains more than 70 modifications and additions to the listings published last year. The new information received has had an effect on the previously forecast capacity change for 2006 and 2007; for North America and the EU15 countries this has not been positive. Some information was received too late for inclusion in the survey and this is true for most years. It is one of the reasons why the starting point for capacity change, the mill listing, is given for end-December of the year prior to publication; 2007 thus becomes a forecast year. A major comment from last year was the ongoing and increasing number of pressures on mill operations and management time. 2006 and the first half of 2007 have met or perhaps surpassed predictions. US housing is going through a torrid time and there is great pressure on interest rates. As reported in the MDF survey (issue 4, 2007, p26), the US panel industry is facing some difficulties with the CARB (California Air Resources Board) decision and the Boiler MACT (Maximum Achievable Control Technology) court ruling (also see issue 4 news, p5). The more mature industries of North America and the EU15 have seen capacity shrink again in 2006 after 2005. The contrast between these industries and those burgeoning industries in eastern Europe, Russia and Turkey is even more marked. Returning to the theme of modifications to the mill listing, even though EU15 capacity can show an apparent growth of 0.5% in 2006, this is after net upward revisions to existing capacity which ought to have been shown in 2005. This growth, therefore, is illusory and it is very likely that actual capacity was static at best. There are other published sources of capacities of individual mills or national industries. It should be reiterated that those readers making comparisons with the Composite Panel Association of North America should be aware that the CPA gathers data on just under seven days per week, 52 weeks per year. This tends to show US mill capacities 10% higher than the equivalent for the rest of the world. Much of the WBPI survey data derives directly from the North American mills but they increasingly provide similar data to that submitted to CPA. North America The North American particleboard industry, and in the US in particular, has developed in some contrast to both MDF and OSB. The last five years have seen a net reduction in capacity to levels barely above those prevailing at the beginning of the 1990s. From 2000 the North American industry shifted northwards as Canada expanded capacity sharply. However, in the last two years the Canadian particleboard producers too have suffered setbacks. During 2006 North American capacity fell 3.2% (412,000m3) after suffering a 6.8% decline in 2005. Since the beginning of 2005, a total of 1,347,000m3 of capacity has closed and this includes the temporary closure of one line at Sonae's Lac Megantic mill. The most significant closure of the year was the GP Gaylord Mississippi mill at 478,000m3 capacity. However, Green Tech, Louisiana and Rodman Industries, Wisconsin also closed their doors during 2006. This shows the US as contracting the most during the year, particularly as the Canada situation was ameliorated by the opening of the replacement line (after fire) at Uniboard's Sayabec site. The destroyed line was shown in the listings as 300,000m3 but references have been made to the new line being capable of 380,000m3 per annum. Readily apparent was that during 2006, prior to the housing market downturn, particleboard was in relatively short supply. Despite this, the sale of the Weyerhaeuser panel plants was completed to Flakeboard and Roseburg Lumber acquired the remaining GP mills., with the exception of Gaylord. Roseburg Lumber is now the largest particleboard producer in North America, owning six mills and 2,288,000m3 capacity (18% of North American total). Flakeboard is second at 1,600,000m3 per annum and Temple Inland is third with 1,131,000m3. Between them, these three companies operate about 41% of North American capacity. Excluding OSB, Flakeboard owns the largest share of panel production capacity in the region. Perhaps in response to the tight market situation, or as new owners of American mills, Flakeboard reported a series of capacity increases for the survey. Table 1 summarises the number of mills and lines in North America and Table 2 shows that, temporarily, average line size in the US exceeded that for Canada in 2006. Not unexpectedly, North American per capita capacity is less than half that for EU15 countries, at 34.1m3/1000 and 83.6m3/1000 respectively. Furthermore, despite the wide range of population densities and economic development, the 'Other Europe' region, including Turkey and Russia, achieved 52.3m3/1000 by end-2006. Other events - or in some cases, non-events - during the year included: * No change to the reported Mexican capacity even though it was believed Rexcel would expand. This is probably delayed until 2007; * An upward revision to the Canpar capacity (which was perhaps understated in the last published listings); * The announced closure of Columbia Forest Products' Hearst mill. Later CFP announced that they would be producing soy-based resin particleboard there; * The acquisition by Hambro Forest Products of Broyhill's particleboard mill at Lenoir, North Carolina (but not until after December 2006). The EU15 Countries It would seem that EU15 capacity grew by only 0.5% during 2006 (182,000m3) but a number of upward revisions to individual mill capacities were received during the survey which were also applicable during the previous year. The listings include these revisions and, therefore, actual capacity during the year has, most likely, declined. It is entirely possible that capacity in the region, which was the engine room of the world particleboard industry, has declined in two consecutive years. It is also possible that some mill capacities (including in Eastern Europe) remain understated. This indicates that EU15 remains a net exporter of particleboard which would put production at or around the recorded capacity. Although the EPF reported significant stock reductions in 2006, the gap between production and capacity is so small as to support the premise that operating - as opposed to nameplate - capacity is higher than shown in the listings. Even so, 2006 was the sixth year that EU15 capacity remained below 2000 levels. Germany and Belgium account for most of the decline, which is more remarkable given the relatively buoyant economic conditions. Space does not permit a review of conditions in specific end-use sectors, nor the impact of competing wood and non-wood materials on particleboard usage rates. The new line for Spain in 2006 shown in last year's survey was an error but the impact of the closure at Norbord, South Moulton, was less significant than forecast. Overall, average annual line capacity was only very slightly greater than 2005 at 234,000m3. However, the comparison with the average size of the new mills/lines in all of Europe for the 2005-2008 period, of 543,000m3 per annum, is revealing. Table 3 summarises the number of mills and lines for the EU15 countries. Other Europe Capacity growth as shown in the listings was 1.5% over 2005 and significantly below the 20% growth reported in the previous survey. There are several explanations: * The delay in some projects until 2007 * Cancellation of Turkey's Orma project * The downward revision of current Turkish capacity as a result of new information received. Admittedly the downward revision in Turkey could have applied in 2005, which would have afforded net growth in 'other Europe' closer to 7%. There were, however, upward revisions to capacity for existing mills in Norway, Slovenia, Poland and Romania. Two mills have come on stream in Russia - Egger and Pfleiderer - for an aggregate of 750,000m3 per annum. More curiously, a new country and mill can be added to the lists which were unrecorded hitherto, namely Spik Iverica in Serbia, now owned by Fantoni. The number of mills and lines are summarised by country in Table 4. Both the author and the editor of WBPI will concur that Turkey has been a bit of a blind spot in the past. The current listing for Turkey shows a number of additions and deletions to the mills in operation and revisions to several capacities. The effect has been to revise downwards Turkish capacity from an estimated four million m3 per annum to 3,122,000m3, which is still a significant amount, 44m3 per 1000 capita and higher than North America. Kastamonu is the largest producer in Turkey with an aggregate annual capacity of 1,125,000m3. It also owns a mill in Bulgaria. A further project in Russia has not gone ahead. Starwood is the second company in Turkey, with all other operators of modest size only. Those who have read our 2007 MDF survey will recognise that Kastamonu and Starwood are major players in that market too, with new mills planned. The previous confusion with new plants is explained by understanding that there are three brothers in the Yildiz family and each owns separate panel companies - Yildiz Entegre, Yildiz Sunta and Starwood (Yildiz means "star" in Turkish). The confusion was compounded by the fact that the General Manager of Kastamonu is Mr Yildiz (no relation!), whom we thank for kindly giving his time. The particleboard (and MDF) market in Turkey is driven by a young, dynamic population of 70 million, in about 25 million households. In addition to natural growth, it is estimated 10-15 million homes (flats and houses) require rebuilding or significant modernisation. Annual housing starts are estimated as 5-700,000 units (of which about one-third have permits); the Turkish furniture industry is booming. As the aforementioned panel producers have developed new plants over the past few years, the older, single-line companies have come under considerable pressure; four of the remaining smaller companies on the list are known to be in financial difficulties, which provides an impetus for the larger companies to expand further. The new Orma project reported last year has been shelved as the company's assets have been frozen and it could not invest in the new Siempelkamp line. There was more success for Dieffenbacher, when its sale of a particleboard line to Teverpan ran into difficulties and was taken over by Kastamonu. The Turkish industry is not without its problems despite high demand and firm prices - there can be few panel industries which are, and will be more in the future, so reliant upon imported raw material. Future Capacity Changes In the EU15 and North America between 2007 and 2009, there are only five new or rebuilt lines, two of which result from the recently announced acquisition of the ex-Hornitex lines by Sonae/Glunz in Germany. For North America there is only one new particleboard line - Sonae Lac Megantic - but that is a replacement for an existing line. It suggests there is no real gain since 2005 in North American capacity. Some of the large operators of multiple mills are announcing capacity creep which has been calculated as +1.5% of 2006 capacity. Table 5 summarises these changes. Capacity in the US will be hardly changed from 2006 and still below 2005 levels. Canada enjoys a rebound in 2007 but there is only some forecast capacity creep in 2008 - and no new lines. The dilemma for the North American industry is that numerous mills are intrinsically old and are now faced with investments to meet environmental regulations, on top of investments in efficiency. At a time when demand is affected, raw materials are constrained by reduced logging in Canada and reduced lumber production - producing less residues - in the US, while Mexico has its forest harvesting difficulties. It is widely understood that tight raw material supply is further under threat from competitive users in the energy business, who can afford to pay more. There are four strategic options for the industry and examples exist of producers utilising all of them. These are to refurbish, rebuild, close or sell off. Not many are considering the rebuild option at this time. Among the EU15 countries there will be only one new line in 2007, at Egger's mill at Hexham in the UK. That 726,000m3 per annum gain is offset by its intention to close the existing lines of 480,000m3 per annum. Norbord in England and Puhos in Finland will also close lines. See Table 6. At best, over the next couple of years, annual capacity creep will be +1%. Thus EU15 capacity will record a net gain in capacity of 1.3% in 2007 and, together with the long-awaited Kronospan Bischweier expansion as well as modifications at Horn by Glunz, an increase of 2% in 2008. 'Other Europe' will add 18.4% to 2006 capacity in 2007, or just under three million m3, with a further 2.5 million m3 in 2008. Around 1.9 million m3 will be located in Russia and 970,000m3 in Turkey. Lithuania, Slovakia, Ukraine and Romania will enjoy large new mills and a new mill by Kronospan for which the location was not announced at the time of writing. The 5.9 million m3 of new capacity in the region continues to exceed the aggregate of all new projects in the world. Interestingly, Kronospan accounts for 3.4 million m3 (57.6%) of projects in 'Other Europe'. Boosted by these developments, the combined North American/European capacity growth will be 6.9% and 5.1% in 2007 and 2008, respectively (see Table 8). The share for 'Other Europe' rises from 26% to 32% by 2009. This demonstrates effectively the approach to the industry's problems adopted by the Europeans; find a fifth option - build somewhere else! Explanation of Terms To assist readers in understanding the survey findings and to interpret the shorthand terms used (necessary to prepare compact listings), some explanations and definitions of the terms used are provided here. Mill capacity is, where possible, reported according to the operators' own estimates. Where we have no estimate, there could be a reference list with a daily capacity. This has been grossed up by 330 days to provide annual capacity in thousands of cubic metres (m3) per annum. It would seem that the US panel association is using a slightly different measure of operating days which adds about 5% to their capacity compared with European mills. Occasionally, we have estimated from press specifications alone. We accept there will be variations under these circumstances and apologise in advance to any mills which feel their potential output has been misrepresented. It was never our intention to do so. We would be pleased to hear directly or via the website with a more accurate figure. Where information is available for each line this has been provided, but in some cases we have provided details of more than one line per mill but published only the mill's total capacity. The country total capacity is based on the sum of the capacities we have provided. Where there are too many gaps, the country total according to other sources has been used and thus may not be a sum of the figures presented in the tables. One of the aspects of the survey is that few sources agree exactly as to capacity. Nevertheless, the data published here is within 10% of most other sources. Capacity changes have been taken directly from the survey results according to the mills' own forecasts, or from published announcements of new lines available to us. It is possible that the future capacity changes are not entirely reliable because, firstly, full information regarding modifications to existing lines is not available, and secondly, we might have missed some of the new announcements or closures. We hope to correct the listings in the subsequent surveys on a rolling update basis. We would be pleased to hear from any manufacturers not represented above. John Wadsworth is the managing director of Intermark. Based in the UK, he has been researching and consulting in panel products globally for more than 25 years. Contacts: Tel. +44 (0) 1376 501565, Fax: +44 (0) 1376 501557, email: inter.mark@virgin.net